Beijing had only one serious rival for a good reason: the enthusiasm for hosting Olympic-scale events is waning. This is due to what’s known as Mega-event Syndrome. It’s a complex of problems and crises that have always plagued the host cities of major international sporting events.
As Oslo, Boston, and other cities have shown, mega-event host countries and cities are no longer interested in hosting them.
Seven major symptoms are associated with the syndrome.
Overpromising of benefits
It is common for prospective hosts to overpromise, particularly when they forecast the economic impact of mega-events. Chicago’s failed bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics was heavily based on the claim made by then-mayor Richard M. Daley that the games would generate 315,000 job years. This is the equivalent of one year’s worth of work for 315,000 individuals.
A renowned sports economist dismissed the forecast as ” insane.” The economists all agree that giving subsidies to mega-events would be a bad idea because they offer poor value for money.
Symptom two: underestimating costs
Mega-events are no different. They routinely exceed their budgets – and sometimes by a lot. The cost overrun average for the Olympic Games was 179%. The average cost overrun for large transport projects is 27%.
Three symptoms: Event takeover
When a country hosts a game or tournament, mega-events can overshadow local development. Rio de Janeiro is the most extreme case, where mega-events have driven urban development almost exclusively over the last ten years. The Pan American Games were held in 2007, followed by the Football World Cup and the Olympic Games, which will be held in 2016. The mayor of Rio admitted as much, when he said “The Olympic Plan is Rio’s Plan and Rio’s Plan is the Olympics.”
Oh, crumbs. EPA/Fazry Ismail
Symptom four: public risk-taking
In order to meet the demands of event governing bodies, the public is forced to guarantee deficits. Organisers of the World Cup 2014 in Brazil, and the Winter Games 2014 in Sochi hoped that private investment would make up a significant part of funding. In both cases, the private investment did not materialise and taxpayers had to cover more than 95%.
Rule of exception: Symptom number five
During the preparation of most mega-events, there are exceptions to existing laws that suspend or change them. Taxation, immigration rights, property, urban planning, and freedom of expression are all examples of exceptions. In the lead-up to mega-events, hosts often displace residents. In the lead-up to both the 2016 Olympic Games and the 2014 World Cup, several tens of thousands of Brazilians were evicted.
Sixth symptom: Elite capture
Event-induced gentrification is a familiar sight in most mega-event host cities that harness events for urban regeneration – from Atlanta and Sydney to Vancouver, a href=”http://hackneycitizen.co.uk/2011/09/06/gentrification-clapton-e5-hackney/”>London/a> and a href=”http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/23/rio-favela The phenomenon of event-induced gentrification is a common sight in mega-event-hosting cities, from Atlanta to Sydney, London to Rio.
Symptom seven: event fix
Mega-events are used as a “quick fix” to speed up major urban development projects. Mega-event deadlines act as “a shot of adrenalin” to help cities complete projects that otherwise would have been stalled. Cities and countries will spend large sums of money to host an event in order to attract the non-sports investments they seek.
Searching for a cure
Azerbaijan was the latest victim of this syndrome, as it hosted the European Games. Baku was rushed to put together the 2015 European Games in three years, which meant many of these problems played out in the city. The massive budget overruns were also a part of this picture.